Changing Global Dynamics: Indonesia's Challenges and Opportunities in 2025 (Part I)

In the projection of strategic issues in the field of Ideology, Politics, Law and Security in 2025, conflict escalation is a major concern at the international level. The trend of geopolitical competition between the United States and China, along with conflicts in Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, and the South China Sea, create threats and higher levels of uncertainty.

The implications of such projections suggest that political stability and security at the regional and international levels are increasingly vulnerable. Competition between major powers can be detrimental to global harmony and directly affect Indonesia’s national interests. Therefore, preventive and adaptive measures are needed to mitigate potential negative impacts.

From a threat perspective, projected conflicts in various regions and potential regional tensions carry higher security risks. This emphasizes the importance of Indonesia strengthening its Pancasila ideology, legal capacity, national defense and security capacity and forging regional cooperation to counter these threats.

This prediction emphasizes the need for a proactive and strategic response to political, law and security challenges in 2025.

Implications of Major Power Competition

In terms of the implications of major power competition, the ideology of Pancasila as the foundation of the Indonesian state becomes vulnerable to external influences that can create global instability. This competition not only tests the robustness of Pancasila values, but also extends to political stability and national security.

The direct implications of this major power competition have the potential to have a significant impact on Indonesia’s national interests, which have always prioritized peace and active independence. Therefore, as a country that faces great challenges in dealing with the complexity of major power competition, Indonesia must maintain the ideological integrity of Pancasila as the main guide in interacting with the outside world.

Political stability, which is the foundation for development and progress, is an important aspect that must be maintained so as not to be affected by uncertain global dynamics. In addition, national security must be a top priority in anticipating threats that may arise from the main power competition.

In the global context, Indonesia needs to establish wise relationships with other countries. Maintaining balanced international cooperation will help Indonesia play a constructive role in building a safer and more peaceful world.

Indonesia’s position as a peaceful and free and active country, requires a smart diplomacy strategy to remain engaged in the international arena without compromising the principles of Pancasila. Thus, Indonesia can be an effective mediator in responding to global conflicts and promoting peace in accordance with its values.

Global instability arising from major power competition creates complex dynamics in international diplomacy. Thus, Indonesia, as a country that pursues a free and active foreign policy, is faced with the complex task of navigating relations with various major powers without getting caught up in disputes that could be detrimental to its national interests. Appropriate diplomatic strategies must be applied to maintain balance and make a positive contribution to global developments.

In carrying out this constructive role, Indonesia can utilize international forums as a platform to promote the values of Pancasila and contribute to world peace. Through active participation in international organizations and multilateral dialogues, Indonesia can provide a voice that has a positive impact on global issues, including conflict resolution efforts, human rights protection, and sustainable development.

Indonesia must also strengthen its competitiveness in the economic and security spheres. By maintaining economic stability, the country can strengthen its position in the global arena and mitigate the potential negative impacts of global instability. Meanwhile, strengthening national security involves modernizing and professionalizing the security apparatus and developing an adaptive defense strategy.

It is important to recognize that the challenges facing Indonesia are not easy tasks, but by utilizing internal and external resources wisely, Indonesia can face the dynamics of major power competition with confidence and courage. By putting forward the values of Pancasila as the main guide, Indonesia can play a more effective role in maintaining global peace and stability, and securing its national interests in this changing context.

Designing a responsive Preventive Strategy

Designing a responsive and proactive preventive strategy is therefore imperative in dealing with the risks that may arise from major power competition. Clever diplomacy and strong regional cooperation are key elements in this strategy.

Indonesia, as a country that supports peace and active freedom, needs to be actively involved in international organizations to strengthen its position and promote the values of Pancasila at the global level. Integrating a preventive dimension in foreign and defense policy is a must to anticipate potential disruptions to national security. By adopting this approach, Indonesia can become a proactive balancing force in the midst of global major power competition.

In addition, these preventive measures can create a more stable climate, minimizing the negative impact of political and security uncertainties that may occur in 2025.

Facing the predictions of strategic issues in field of Ideology, Politics, Law and Security in 2025, Indonesia needs to take concrete and responsive steps. By understanding the complex dynamics at the international, regional and national levels, Indonesia can improve its capabilities in managing potential conflicts, security threats and political challenges that may arise.

This proactive action is important to ensure national stability, and safeguard Indonesia’s interests amid global uncertainty. The importance of maintaining political and security stability also requires Indonesia to continue to strengthen cooperation with its neighbors and regional partners. Strong regional cooperation can create a more secure environment and support joint efforts in addressing security challenges.

By playing an active role in regional organizations, Indonesia can also build a solid foundation for maintaining peace and security at the regional level. Through targeted and risk-based preventive strategies, Indonesia has become a pioneer in building global stability. This requires a focus on diplomacy, regional cooperation and an active role at the international level, Indonesia can protect its national interests while making a positive contribution to a more secure, peaceful and just world.

These are the big challenges facing Indonesia, and with the right awareness and action, the country can play a more effective role in shaping a better future. In designing a preventive strategy, Indonesia should strengthen its security and intelligence institutions to improve their ability to detect early and manage security risks.

Investments in advanced security technologies, personnel training, and international information exchange will be crucial steps in building a solid security foundation. Collaboration with partner countries on intelligence sharing will help Indonesia gain greater insight into potential threats. (To be continued)

(Prof. DR. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, SH, MH, MSI, is the former Director General of Sospol of the Ministry of Home Affairs RI, Rector of IPDN, Governor of Lemhannas RI, and currently the Board of Experts for Geopolitics and Geostrategy of BPIP RI.)