By: Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, S.H., M.H., M.S.

Editor: Dhania Puspa Purbasari

The meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to be held in Laos, on July 24-27, 2024, will be an important moment to evaluate and formulate strategies related to the implementation of the Five Points of Consensus and the handling of the Myanmar crisis.

The meeting will not only be a platform to assess the progress of ASEAN’s diplomatic initiatives, but also to strengthen humanitarian approaches and regional cooperation in the context of the protracted crisis in Myanmar.

The Myanmar crisis, which culminated in a military coup in February 2021, has created a highly complex situation with far-reaching impacts.

Long-standing ethnic tensions and internal conflicts were exacerbated by political chaos and systematic violence, causing a deep humanitarian crisis.

In this context, ASEAN, as a regional organization that includes Myanmar as a member, has sought to play an active role in addressing the crisis.

Thus, the Five Points of Consensus agreed upon by ASEAN as the main guide in the diplomatic approach to the Myanmar crisis is increasingly being implemented.

The consensus includes cessation of violence, inclusive political dialogue, visits by ASEAN special envoys, humanitarian assistance, and support for the country’s recovery and democratization process.

While these principles have been agreed upon, their implementation faces various challenges.

Therefore, the successful implementation of this consensus is highly dependent on the commitment of all parties involved, as well as ASEAN’s ability to deal with the complex political dynamics in Myanmar.

Thus, the meeting in Laos will be an opportunity for ASEAN Foreign Ministers to evaluate how far progress has been made in the implementation of the Five Points of Consensus.

They will discuss the obstacles faced and formulate new strategies that may be needed to enhance the effectiveness of ASEAN’s approach to the crisis.

The importance of this evaluation lies in the need to ensure that ASEAN’s diplomatic efforts can have a significant and sustainable positive impact on Myanmar’s stability.

The Myanmar crisis is one of the most profound and complex issues in Southeast Asia, with deep roots in ethnic tensions and years of internal conflict.

The crisis reached its peak in February 2021, when a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government, causing serious political turmoil and resulting in an escalation of violence.

The crisis also did not arise suddenly, but was the result of deep ethnic tensions and prolonged internal conflict.

Myanmar, with significant ethnic diversity, has a history of tension between ethnic groups such as the Rohingya, Kachin, Shan and Karen and the central government.

The impact of this crisis extends far beyond Myanmar’s borders, significantly affecting regional stability. Neighboring countries such as Thailand, Bangladesh and India are directly affected by the instability in Myanmar.

Thailand, as a close neighbor, faces challenges in dealing with the flow of refugees crossing the border to seek refuge.

The instability in Myanmar has also impacted Thailand’s diplomatic and economic relations with Myanmar.

At the international level, the Myanmar crisis also has major implications for humanitarian response and diplomacy.

The international community, including the UN and various humanitarian agencies, has gone to great lengths to provide assistance to those affected.

However, access to areas affected by violence is often hampered by the unstable political situation.

International diplomacy also faces major challenges, making efforts to defuse tensions through diplomacy even more difficult.

Add to this the inability of the international community to force significant change.

Nonetheless, ASEAN has sought to play a central role in mediating the Myanmar crisis through its Five Points of Consensus, designed to ease tensions and address the deepening crisis.

The consensus covers a range of key aspects, from cessation of violence and political dialog to support for humanitarian aid and state recovery.

This reflected ASEAN’s commitment to addressing the crisis, with a comprehensive and coordinated approach.

One of the key elements of the consensus is the call for an end to violence, and the encouragement of dialogue between all parties involved.

By ending the violence, ASEAN hopes to create an environment more conducive to negotiations and conflict resolution.

In addition, the placement of an ASEAN special envoy in Myanmar is a strategic move aimed at facilitating meetings with all relevant parties. The envoy is expected to bridge differences and encourage constructive dialogue.

The consensus also emphasizes the importance of ensuring effective access to humanitarian assistance for affected communities.

In the context of a severe humanitarian crisis, ensuring aid reaches those in need is crucial to alleviating the suffering of the people of Myanmar.

While the Five Points of Consensus have been drafted with ambitious goals, their implementation faces significant challenges. The lack of meaningful progress in the cessation of violence and inclusive political dialog are major obstacles.

The changing situation in Myanmar and complex political dynamics often hamper diplomatic efforts and aid procurement.

The success of the consensus will depend on the commitment of all parties involved and ASEAN’s ability to overcome these obstacles.

The meeting will therefore provide an important opportunity to evaluate the progress made in implementing the Five Points of Consensus.

ASEAN Foreign Ministers will be able to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken and formulate new and more effective strategies.

This evaluation is crucial to ensure that ASEAN’s efforts can have a significant and sustainable positive impact, and to adjust the approach according to the current needs and dynamics in Myanmar.

Thus, while the Five Points of Consensus have established a solid framework for addressing the Myanmar crisis, the challenges in its implementation underscore the need for continuous adjustment and evaluation.

The meeting is expected to generate new solutions and strengthen ASEAN’s efforts in defusing the crisis and supporting recovery and stability in Myanmar.

Indonesia’s role

Indonesia, as one of the members of the ASEAN troika, plays a crucial role in addressing the Myanmar crisis with a cautious and coordinated approach.

In this context, Indonesia sought to strike a balance between two key needs: exerting the necessary pressure on the parties involved in the crisis, while maintaining constructive diplomatic relations.

This approach reflects Indonesia’s awareness of the complexity of the situation and the importance of effective diplomacy in addressing this deep and sensitive issue.

This effort requires not only diplomatic skills, but also the ability to adapt to the changing situation and evolving political dynamics in Myanmar.

In addition, the Office of the ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar also played a crucial role in facilitating dialogue and meetings between all parties concerned.

The quiet diplomacy practiced by the special envoy requires great skill and sensitivity to Myanmar’s internal dynamics.

Indonesia’s approach and the role of the ASEAN Office of the Special Envoy also reflect the challenges ASEAN faces in dealing with complex regional crises.

Maintaining a balance between international pressure and diplomatic support is key to this strategy.

Through intensive coordination and communication, ASEAN seeks to ensure that solutions are not only diplomatically sound but also responsive to humanitarian needs on the ground.

In the face of uncertainty and changing dynamics, it is important for ASEAN to remain flexible and adaptive in their strategy.

The Myanmar crisis requires extensive engagement and cooperation, both at the regional and international levels. Indonesia and the ASEAN Office of the Special Envoy serve as important mediators and facilitators in this process, but an effective resolution also requires support and contributions from the wider international community.

Role of AHA Center

In addition to diplomatic efforts, Indonesia has demonstrated its commitment through an active role in providing social assistance to the people of Myanmar through the AHA Center, ASEAN’s disaster management agency.

The AHA Centre, which was established as part of ASEAN’s efforts to deal with disasters and emergencies, plays a key role in distributing humanitarian aid in an efficient and effective manner.

In the context of Myanmar’s protracted crisis, the role of the AHA Centre is critical to alleviate the suffering experienced by the people of Myanmar, especially in a situation where access to aid is often hampered by political dynamics and turmoil.

The aid distributed by the AHA Centre is designed to reach those most in need, focusing on the immediate needs arising from a severe humanitarian crisis.

Under such conditions, ensuring that humanitarian aid reaches those in need is a major challenge.

The AHA Center’s role in the distribution of humanitarian assistance is a very important aspect of ASEAN’s approach to this crisis.

By prioritizing efficiency and effectiveness in aid distribution, the AHA Centre is helping to alleviate the suffering of the people of Myanmar, and providing vital support in a very difficult situation.

In addition, the AHA Center also plays a role in strengthening local capacity in disaster management and humanitarian assistance.

Through training and technical support, the Center helps local communities in Myanmar to be better prepared for crises and disasters.

International cooperation also plays an important role in supporting the Center’s efforts.

Coordination with various non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international agencies, and donor countries ensures that existing resources are used optimally and do not overlap.

These synergies strengthen the effectiveness of aid distribution and ensure that various aspects of humanitarian needs, such as food, medicine, and protection, can be met in a coordinated manner. Through this collaboration, the AHA Center can be more responsive to emergency situations.

Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, S.H., M.H., M.Si. was the Governor of Lemhannas RI (2001-2005) and the Director General of Social Politics at the Ministry of Home Affairs RI (1998-2000). He is currently the Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Center for Geopolitics & Geostrategy Studies Indonesia (CGSI), and the Head of the Expert Team of the Pancasila Ideology Development Agency (BPIP) RI.