By: Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, S.H., M.H., M.S.

Editor: Dhania Puspa

TNI General (Ret.) Prabowo Subianto’s warning about the potential outbreak of the Third World War in global geopolitics is not an exaggeration, but a reflection of the reality facing the world today.

As Minister of Defense and President-elect of Indonesia 2024-2029, Prabowo on September 25, 2024, in a hearing session with the Indonesian House of Representatives, reminded that the world is in a very fragile situation, with tensions between major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China continuing to increase.

In this context, Indonesia’s role as a country with a non-aligned policy and a strategic location in the Indo-Pacific region has its own significance.

Indonesia is in the midst of increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, which is the main arena of competition between the United States and China.

Tensions in the South China Sea, involving territorial claims from various countries, as well as the US military presence in the region, have created the potential for confrontation that could trigger a wider conflict.

In this context, Indonesia must adhere to a free and active foreign policy to maintain regional stability and protect national interests.

The non-aligned principle that Indonesia has embraced since the era of President Soekarno continues to be an important foundation in dealing with global geopolitical dynamics.

Prabowo’s warning about the Third World War illustrates how Indonesia must remain vigilant against geopolitical changes, while trying to maintain neutrality in global conflicts involving great powers.

At the same time, the importance of Indonesia’s preparedness in facing external threats is manifested.

In an increasingly unstable global geopolitics, formidable military and defense forces are key to maintaining the country’s sovereignty.

Therefore, the modernization of the main equipment of the weapon system (alutsista) and the increase of defense capacity are important priorities in maintaining national security.

With global tensions rising, including the possibility of the outbreak of the Third World War, Indonesia must be ready to face all possibilities, both in terms of diplomacy and defense.

The threat of World War III

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential escalation in East Asia between the United States and China suggest that the world is now on the brink of a greater catastrophe.

These geopolitical tensions not only threaten regional stability, but also bring broader global risks, including the possible use of nuclear weapons.

In the face of this global threat, Indonesia must continue to prioritize a peace-based approach and multilateral cooperation.

Through ASEAN and other international forums, Indonesia can continue to play a leading role in regional and global stability.

With the potential for World War III, this must be a call for Indonesia and other countries to be more serious in maintaining world peace. As well as avoiding provocations, and encouraging constructive dialogue among the great powers.

In the midst of global geopolitical uncertainty, Indonesia’s role as an anchor of stability in the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly important.

The potential for the outbreak of World War III was exacerbated by the possible use of nuclear weapons. Global defense experts have long warned that in large-scale conflicts, countries that possess nuclear weapons may be tempted to use them as a last resort in defending their national interests.

Nuclear weapons, with their incredible destructive power, will destroy not only the countries directly involved. But it will also have a global impact that damages the environment, economy, and international political stability.

Prabowo reminded that a war like this will not distinguish between countries that are directly involved and those that are not, because the effect will extend to the whole world, including Indonesia.

As a country that has a strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region, Indonesia will not be spared from the impact of global wars, even though it is not directly involved.

Indonesia’s geographical location on international trade routes and proximity to major countries make it vulnerable to the economic, political, and security impacts of global conflicts.

A world war involving nuclear forces will destabilize the region. And it threatens Indonesia’s national interests in various aspects, including maritime security and economic stability.

The Impact of Global Power Engagement

Furthermore, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has long been one of the issues that triggers global instability, especially due to the involvement of major powers such as the United States that provide political and military support to Israel.

Instead of accelerating peace, this support has prolonged the conflict, creating tensions that are difficult to stop.

This external involvement not only worsens the situation in the Middle East region, but also increases the risk of a wider escalation, affecting countries outside the region.

However, when it comes to conflicts that have the potential to trigger global instability, the Russia-Ukraine war should be placed on the front lines.

This conflict not only has an impact on Europe, but also poses the threat of nuclear war that could ignite World War III.

As Russia becomes embroiled in this war and more and more Western countries support Ukraine, the risk of nuclear escalation becomes more and more real.

The United States, NATO and its allies, by providing military support and economic assistance to Ukraine, face the potential for a direct confrontation with Russia.

This is a very serious threat to global stability, more than just conventional combat.

So the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine show a similar pattern: the involvement of global powers in local conflicts magnifies the scale and impact.

Not only that, other major powers, such as China, are also increasingly showing tension in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in the South China Sea.

Tensions in the region, if not managed properly, could trigger military clashes between major powers, which could again lead to nuclear escalation.

The implications of these conflicts are becoming more and more apparent. The world is now on the brink of a greater catastrophe as the great powers continue to use war as a tool of diplomacy.

This situation is further exacerbated by the deep rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China that has the potential to trigger a multi-front conflict, with Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine as two prime examples.

Therefore, it is important for the international community to take preventive measures to avoid a wider escalation. Increasing peace diplomacy and rejecting the military approach as a solution should be top priorities.

If not, then the risk of the outbreak of World War III is even greater, especially as the threat of nuclear weapons becomes increasingly possible in the current global conflict scenario.

This instability shows that military power is not a sustainable long-term solution, but rather exacerbates the situation and creates opportunities for greater disaster in the future.

The Importance of Indonesia’s Non-Aligned Attitude

As a country with a tradition of non-aligned politics, Indonesia has long occupied a neutral position in the global geopolitical arena.

Since the era of President Soekarno, Indonesia has consistently maintained good relations with various power blocs, without taking sides explicitly.

Prabowo, as the successor of this tradition, emphasized that Indonesia must stick to this path, not get involved in military or political alliances that could threaten national sovereignty and stability.

In the midst of an increasingly multipolar world, Indonesia’s non-aligned position is the key to maintaining domestic stability and maximizing diplomatic roles in the international arena.

The importance of maintaining Indonesia’s non-aligned stance in the face of increasing global threats is urgent.

In Prabowo’s view, the non-aligned attitude is not just a tradition of diplomacy, but a vital foreign policy foundation for Indonesia’s independence in making strategic decisions.

This policy has been inherited since the era of President Soekarno and has played an important role in maintaining national stability, even in the midst of global geopolitical tensions.

By not being involved in any military alliance or power bloc, Indonesia has the freedom to conduct a foreign policy that is independent and not bound by the interests of other countries.

The non-aligned attitude gives Indonesia flexibility in maintaining national security and stability. By not siding with any bloc, both military and political, Indonesia can maintain balanced relations with all the major powers in the world.

In an increasingly complex global geopolitical context, where the rivalry between major powers such as the United States and China is getting sharper, the non-aligned position allows Indonesia to play the role of a neutral mediator.

The decision to maintain a non-aligned stance is also in line with efforts to maintain national security amid global uncertainty.

The threat of a major conflict, as many geopolitical experts have warned, could have a very detrimental impact on countries around the world.

Indonesia, as a country located in the strategic Indo-Pacific region, has a great interest in maintaining peace and stability in this region.

With a non-aligned stance, Indonesia does not need to be involved in conflicts triggered by military alliances, but can still play a diplomatic role to ease tensions and promote peaceful conflict resolution.

Indonesia is committed to global peace. So the non-aligned attitude provides a foundation for Indonesia to play an active role in international forums such as ASEAN and the United Nations, where Indonesia can voice the interests of regional and global peace and stability.

Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya ­Suradinata, S.H., M.H., M.S. is the Former ­Director ­General, ­Socio-Political of the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia and the Governor ­ of the National Lemhannas of the Republic of Indonesia (2001-2005).