The dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war have undergone significant shifts with changes in U.S. foreign policy under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Unlike the era of Joe Biden, the Trump administration showed a tendency to ease tensions with Russia. This was evident from the voting at the United Nations (UN) which favored Moscow, as well as a series of high-level diplomatic meetings between the two countries.

This shift has wide-ranging implications, not only for the conflict in Eastern Europe but also for the stability and balance of power in Southeast Asia. For Indonesia, the more lenient U.S. foreign policy towards Russia created more diplomatic space to maintain a balance between global powers without having to align itself completely with one of the major actors. The shift in U.S. attitude toward Russia indicates a more pragmatic and national-interest-oriented global strategy compared to the confrontational approach during Joe Biden’s era. Trump seemed to be working to build a closer relationship with Russia to reduce Moscow’s dependence on Beijing, potentially weakening the Russia-China strategic alliance.

This move could create a geopolitical imbalance, which could be exploited by Southeast Asian countries in managing their relationships with great powers. For Indonesia, this change presents an opportunity to strengthen relations with Russia without being too influenced by U.S. or Chinese geopolitical pressures, particularly in defense and energy sectors.

Countries in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, view this U.S. geostrategic shift as both an opportunity and a challenge. Russia’s closeness to ASEAN countries is evident from high-ranking Russian officials such as Sergei Shoigu recently visiting Malaysia and Indonesia, signaling an increase in cooperation in defense and security. With the U.S. sanctions on Russia becoming more relaxed, Southeast Asian countries can more freely engage with Moscow without the concern of pressure from Washington. This can strengthen the diversification of military and economic resources, reducing dependence on a single global power.

However, this policy shift also brings uncertainties. If the U.S. succeeds in pulling Russia out of China’s orbit, Beijing may strengthen its influence in the region through a more aggressive approach, both economically and militarily. Disputes in the South China Sea, for instance, could become more complex with increased competition between great powers in the region.

Therefore, ASEAN countries must engage in careful diplomacy to avoid being caught in the rivalry of great powers, which could threaten regional stability. In this context, Indonesia must strengthen its maritime diplomacy and reinforce its independent foreign policy to remain a stable axis amidst the global geopolitical dynamics. Similarly, Southeast Asian countries should respond with flexible foreign policies.

From ASEAN’s geopolitical perspective, this situation demands that its member countries engage in more meticulous diplomacy. ASEAN has the principles of centrality and neutrality in dealing with geopolitical competition, but increasing external pressures may test the organization’s cohesion. If tensions rise, ASEAN countries may face dilemmas in determining their strategic position, particularly regarding relations with China, which has substantial economic influence, and the U.S., which remains a major security power in the region.

To maintain regional stability, ASEAN needs to strengthen cooperation mechanisms such as the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) to remain a key actor in determining the regional geopolitical direction. Meanwhile, for Indonesia, the largest country in ASEAN, this dynamic presents a challenge in implementing an independent and active foreign policy. As a country strategically positioned between great powers, Indonesia must play the role of a balancer to prevent escalating conflicts in the region.

Indonesia’s membership in forums like the G20, its membership in BRICS, and its leadership in ASEAN can be leveraged to encourage more constructive dialogue between the U.S., Russia, and China. Furthermore, Indonesia can also enhance maritime defense cooperation with other ASEAN countries to ensure stability in strategic waters such as the North Natuna Sea, which is frequently targeted by Beijing’s geopolitical maneuvers.

In addition to the geopolitical challenges, the economic impact of these tensions also needs to be considered. If the rivalry between the U.S., Russia, and China intensifies, global supply chains could be disrupted, which would ultimately affect the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries. ASEAN’s dependence on trade and investment with China must be balanced with diversifying economic partnerships, including strengthening ties with the European Union, Japan, and Middle Eastern countries.

For Indonesia, an adaptive economic strategy needs to be implemented to maintain domestic economic stability amidst global uncertainties. Thus, tensions between the U.S., Russia, and China present complex challenges for the stability of Southeast Asia. ASEAN must continue to uphold the principles of neutrality and strengthen its diplomatic role in maintaining a balance of power.

In facing increasingly uncertain global dynamics, balancing national and regional interests is key to maintaining stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia. Therefore, the U.S. geostrategic shift presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian countries, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia.

Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, SH, MH, MS, is a member of the Expert Council of BPIP RI in the field of Geopolitics and Government Management Geostrategy.