As of January 1, 2025, the leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been handed over to Malaysia, which will also host the ASEAN Summit in May 2025.

This decision has drawn global attention, especially following the announcement that Malaysia plans to invite representatives from China and the Arab Gulf states to the forum.

This move reflects Malaysia’s efforts to expand ASEAN’s role in global geopolitics amidst intensifying international tensions.

The decision is not solely about ASEAN’s bilateral relations with China or the Gulf Arab countries, but also a reflection of Malaysia’s foreign policy, which seeks to strengthen ASEAN’s position as a key player in an increasingly multipolar world.

As reported by international media, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasized that the invitation of non-member countries is not intended to counter the United States, but rather to ensure ASEAN’s continued relevance in a multipolar world.

This statement indicates that Malaysia does not want ASEAN to be trapped in a power struggle between the U.S. and China, but aims to strengthen ASEAN’s position as a neutral yet proactive player on the international stage.

By inviting major powers such as China and the resource-rich Gulf states, ASEAN is not only reaffirming itself as a strong trading bloc but is also openly challenging the dominance of the United States in international political and economic affairs.

Malaysia’s decision, as the current ASEAN chair, reflects the region’s determination to broaden its international relations without getting caught in the tensions between the world’s two superpowers, the U.S. and China.

A Shift in Global Power

ASEAN’s current geopolitical positioning is at a critical juncture. With the shift in global power dynamics, ASEAN is striving to become a more independent and relevant player in a multipolar world.

The involvement of China — ASEAN’s largest trading partner — and the energy-surplus Gulf states illustrates ASEAN’s effort to strengthen its economic and political integration amidst the U.S.-China trade tensions.

Strategically, cooperation between ASEAN, China, and the Gulf nations offers multiple advantages. China, with its growing economic power, is a key partner offering vast opportunities in trade and investment. The Gulf nations, with their abundant energy reserves, hold great potential to fund infrastructure and technology development projects in ASEAN.

Such an alliance would not only benefit the regional economy but also enhance ASEAN’s bargaining power with other global powers, including the United States.

Indonesia, as the largest economy in ASEAN, has a strategic interest in maintaining balanced relations among these major global players. By leveraging this new alliance, Indonesia can accelerate the modernization of key sectors such as renewable energy, technology, and manufacturing.

Nevertheless, Indonesia must also be cautious of the potential impact of U.S. foreign policies that could destabilize global trade. While not directly invited to the summit, the U.S. remains a major trading partner of ASEAN and holds significant influence over the global economy.

Therefore, any ASEAN policy decisions must consider the need to strengthen ties with China and the Gulf while maintaining a constructive diplomatic channel with the U.S.

Malaysia’s move to strengthen alliances with China and the Gulf states through the 2025 ASEAN Summit can thus be seen as ASEAN’s orientation toward balancing U.S. dominance in the Asia-Pacific and globally.

It also underscores ASEAN’s commitment to maintaining its relevance in an increasingly multipolar global order.

With rising tensions between the U.S. and China, ASEAN aims to become a diplomatic center that avoids being entangled in the rivalry between these two major powers.

Southeast Asia, with its ten member states, has become one of the fastest-growing economic regions in the world. In 2023, ASEAN’s total GDP was estimated at around USD 3.8 trillion, making it a key player in the global economy.

Despite this significant potential, ASEAN is not a homogenous entity. Countries like Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are more economically advanced, while others like Laos and Myanmar still face major challenges in improving their competitiveness.

This diversity poses a challenge for ASEAN in designing policies that benefit all member states.

Malaysia’s decision to invite China and the Gulf Arab states to the 2025 ASEAN Summit is thus a response to increasingly complex global geopolitical dynamics.

China, with its rapid growth, has become ASEAN’s main trading partner. Meanwhile, Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates offer immense financial strength due to their energy surpluses.

This collaboration opens up significant opportunities for ASEAN to access investment funds needed in critical sectors such as infrastructure, technology, and renewable energy.

For the Gulf countries, ASEAN represents a promising market with great potential to support their economic diversification efforts.

Hence, the 2025 ASEAN Summit marks a pivotal moment for strengthening regional alliances. However, one of the main challenges ASEAN faces is the economic development disparity among its member states.

More advanced countries like Singapore and Malaysia may find it easier to benefit from this alliance, while lower-income countries such as Laos and Cambodia may struggle to seize the opportunities presented.

Therefore, closer cooperation between ASEAN, China, and the Gulf states also offers ASEAN the chance to play a larger role in global geopolitics.

Such alliances can enhance ASEAN’s bargaining power in international trade negotiations and position it as a key connector in cross-regional investment flows.

As a region not bound by great power rivalries, ASEAN has the potential to become a more independent diplomatic hub, while also securing regional economic prosperity through broader cooperation.

Building a Position Amidst Global Tensions

As the largest economy in ASEAN and one of Southeast Asia’s major geopolitical powers, Indonesia has a vested interest in the development of ASEAN’s relations with China and the Gulf Arab states.

With the region’s largest population and a strategically significant location, Indonesia sits at the heart of major shifts in the global geopolitical landscape.

Through active participation in ASEAN, Indonesia seeks to safeguard its national interests amidst rising tensions between the world’s two major powers — the United States and China.

Indonesia plays a crucial role in international trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest maritime shipping lanes.

Approximately 80% of oil shipments from the Middle East to China and Japan pass through this strait, making Indonesia a vital player in connecting the Middle East with East Asia.

Thus, Indonesia has a strong interest in maintaining the stability of this trade route, which is key to regional and global economic stability.

Geopolitically, Indonesia strives to maintain a neutral position amid tensions involving major global powers, while continuing to strengthen ties with countries that offer economic benefits.

Closer cooperation with China, especially in technology and investment sectors, could accelerate Indonesia’s economic modernization.

Furthermore, relations with Gulf Arab states present significant investment opportunities, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors — both crucial for driving Indonesia’s continued economic growth.

However, Indonesia must also carefully manage its relationship with the United States, which remains a key trading partner for both ASEAN and Indonesia.

The U.S.’ increasingly protectionist trade policies could negatively impact Indonesia’s economy, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S. market.

The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China also pose challenges for Indonesia in maintaining balanced relations with both major powers.

Therefore, Indonesia must take a more active role within ASEAN, seeking to harness ties with the Gulf and China while preserving good relations with the U.S.

By pursuing a cautious and strategic foreign policy, Indonesia can protect its national interests, seize emerging economic opportunities, and solidify its status as a stable geopolitical force amid global tensions.

With a growing economy and a highly strategic location on international trade routes, ASEAN has the potential to play a greater role in the global trade landscape.

However, to realize this potential, ASEAN must wisely manage both its internal dynamics and external relations, strengthening partnerships with global powers without becoming ensnared in the rivalry between the U.S. and China.

Internally, ASEAN is not a homogenous bloc. There are significant economic gaps among its member states.

Therefore, strengthening intra-ASEAN cohesion and creating inclusive policies will be key to ensuring all members can benefit from opportunities, whether in relations with China or the Gulf Arab states.

Amidst global tensions, ASEAN also holds great potential to become a more integrated and self-reliant center of economic growth.

With the right strategy, ASEAN can strengthen its position in a multipolar world, leveraging partnerships with China and the Gulf Arab states to secure economic growth and political stability in the region.

For Indonesia, this is an opportunity to take on a more active role — ensuring its national interests are protected while contributing to ASEAN’s rising global influence.

Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, SH, MH, MS, was the Governor of Lemhannas RI (2001–2005). He currently serves as Chairman of the Advisory Board of CGSI (Center for Geopolitics and Geostrategy Studies Indonesia).