President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on April 9, 2025, was more than just a bilateral meeting—it was a strong signal that Indonesia is preparing to play a more strategic role in the global geopolitical configuration.

In a two-hour meeting with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) at the Qasr Al Shatie Palace, urgent issues were discussed, from U.S. tariff policies to the Gaza conflict. This exemplifies diplomacy that blends national interest, humanitarian concern, and geopolitical decisiveness.

President Prabowo’s choice to begin his international visits with the UAE reflects a mature geopolitical decision. The UAE is not only an economic partner but also a key player in the Middle East—a region undergoing strategic transformation. Indonesia views this region as a new epicenter for energy politics, Islamic finance, and Global South issues.

From a regional geopolitical standpoint, Indonesia’s presence in the Middle East carries important meaning. Amidst great power rivalries and the shifting global order post-unilateralism, countries like the UAE, Türkiye, and Indonesia are forming a network of “middle powers” seeking to maintain regional stability.

With a flexible non-aligned approach, Indonesia under President Prabowo aims to position itself as a bridge between global interests and regional aspirations—especially on the Palestinian issue, which remains a deep geopolitical wound.

For Indonesia, this visit is part of reconstructing its geopolitical orientation—not merely looking to the West or East, but toward cross-regional strategic interests that can elevate its global bargaining power. Thus, the visit becomes a symbol of Indonesia’s geopolitical awakening.

Under President Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia seeks to balance national interest and global dynamics, while constructing a diplomatic architecture capable of addressing the challenges of the times.

Fragmenting Geopolitics

President Prabowo’s visit to the Middle East cannot be separated from the context of a globally fragmenting geopolitical landscape.

As the United States implements reciprocal import tariffs against hundreds of countries, including Indonesia, the world is witnessing a new wave of protectionism eroding the spirit of multilateral cooperation.

This protectionist shift not only impacts global supply chains and free trade but also underscores a turn toward unilateralism that threatens international economic stability and fairness.

In this context, Indonesia is compelled to act actively and strategically, avoiding being caught in the tug-of-war of global power interests.

The U.S.–China rivalry has surpassed ideological lines and evolved into full-spectrum competition in technology, military, and even food security. This tension creates a domino effect in strategic areas like the South China Sea, Ukraine, and the Middle East.

The crisis in Gaza symbolizes the failure of the international multilateral system to prevent conflict and protect civilians.

Amid such circumstances, President Prabowo’s state visits to the UAE and Türkiye become integral to Indonesia’s diplomatic strategy—asserting a commitment to peace and serving as a bridge for dialogue between nations in tension.

This marks Indonesia’s active diplomacy in building new strategic networks. At the same time, economic and defense cooperation established through memorandums of understanding with the UAE paves the way for strengthening Indonesia’s position amid global uncertainty.

Therefore, this state visit is not only diplomatically relevant but also historically strategic. As the largest democracy in the Muslim world, Indonesia holds both moral and political legitimacy to act as a mediator and stabilizer.

In an era of global multilateral crisis, Indonesia’s voice is needed to maintain balance, promote peaceful solutions, and strengthen South-South solidarity.

President Prabowo’s moves underline that Indonesia is not a mere observer of global dynamics—but is instead taking the initiative to shape a more inclusive and just world order.

Reshaping the Indo-Pacific Architecture

In today’s increasingly fragmented global landscape, the Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicenter of global strategic dynamics.

This region is not only a hub of economic growth and technological innovation, but also a stage for influence competition between major powers such as the U.S. and China.

Challenges in the Indo-Pacific include issues of sovereignty, maritime security, and economic sustainability. Amid conflicting interests, the need for a regional architecture that ensures long-term stability is increasingly urgent.

As the largest archipelagic nation and a maritime axis in the Indo-Pacific, Indonesia carries a strategic responsibility to keep the region from falling into a new Cold War logic.

With its geographical advantage and active diplomacy, Indonesia has the key ingredients to play a mediating role. President Prabowo’s approach to building strong bilateral relationships—while upholding non-aligned principles—opens the door for middle-path diplomacy.

Such personal diplomacy serves as a vital tool to ease tensions and expand opportunities for cooperation.

Middle-path diplomacy in practice requires more than narrative balancing. Fundamental questions—such as how to build national economic resilience under global tariff pressures, or how to mitigate potential regional conflicts—must be answered with cross-sector, risk-based policies.

Indonesia’s active role in ASEAN and its cooperation with strategic partners like Japan, India, Australia, and Gulf nations must be seen as part of efforts to strengthen regional resilience.

Thus, the Indo-Pacific is not merely a rivalry arena, but also fertile ground for innovative diplomacy and sustainable collaboration.

Indonesia’s role, reinforced by President Prabowo’s leadership, holds the potential to become an anchor of stability in the turbulent currents of geopolitics.

The challenges are immense, but with a measured strategy and long-term vision, Indonesia can become a model of how developing nations contribute solutions amid great-power rivalries.

Geopolitical Interests through Economic Response

Meanwhile, during a panel discussion at The Yudhoyono Institute forum (April 13, 2025), senior economist Dr. Chatib Basri shared strategic insights on the impact of U.S. tariff policy on Indonesia’s economy.

He emphasized that the risk to Indonesia’s bond market stability is relatively limited, as only about 14% of government bonds are held by foreign investors.

Thus, the estimated impact on Indonesia’s GDP is around 2.2%, given that exports to the U.S. form a minor share.

However, reforms such as removing import quotas and relaxing the Domestic Component Level (TKDN) policy are essential to lower production costs and stabilize the real sector.

This analysis must be read in a broader context—namely, the direction of Indonesia’s geopolitical policy under President Prabowo.

His overseas visits post-election are not mere diplomatic ceremonies, but strategic steps to strengthen Indonesia’s position in a fragmented global system.

Amid U.S.–China rivalry and disrupted global supply chains, Indonesia must actively pursue economic diplomacy to ensure that tariff and geopolitical pressures become momentum for reinforcing national economic independence.

In this regard, President Prabowo’s visits to strategic partners like China, Japan, and Middle Eastern countries reflect efforts to build a more balanced economic-political alliance.

This approach rests on the principle of active non-alignment—ensuring Indonesia does not become a satellite of any major power, but remains sovereign in setting its foreign policy direction.

Fiscal, trade, and diplomatic policy consolidation must aim to create new strategic space, including diversifying trade partners and opening investment pathways based on mutual interest.

By integrating economic policy with geopolitical direction, Indonesia under Prabowo Subianto has the opportunity to turn global pressures into domestic reform catalysts.

Bilateral and regional visits should be interpreted as part of a grand strategy to strengthen Indonesia’s bargaining power in both economic and security realms.

Thus, President-elect Prabowo’s visit to the UAE and meeting with President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) holds significance far beyond state protocol.

Amid global systemic disruption, this diplomacy is part of Indonesia’s strategic step to assert its position in an increasingly unpredictable world.

The world is shifting toward multipolarity marked by fragmented interests. Indonesia cannot remain passive in the face of such change.

The rise of economic nationalism in many countries has driven protectionism, eroding the principles of free trade.

The United States and China—two dominant global economies—are now engaged not only in tariff and technological issues, but also in ideological and military influence.

This situation affects developing countries, including Indonesia, which must wisely navigate the winds of geopolitical and economic change.

On the other hand, the global multilateral system—long upheld by institutions like the UN, WTO, and Bretton Woods—is facing a legitimacy crisis due to its ineffectiveness in handling conflict and global inequality.

The war in Gaza, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and tensions in the South China Sea are examples of this failure to uphold stability and justice.

In such conditions, Indonesia must step up as a regional balancer, while upholding the principle of non-alignment and prioritizing cooperation based on mutual respect.

Prof. Dr. Ermaya Suradinata, SH, MH, MS, served as Governor of Lemhannas RI (2001–2005) and Director General of Social Politics at the Ministry of Home Affairs (1998–2000). He is currently Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Center for Geopolitics & Geostrategy Studies Indonesia (CGSI).