The Postmodern War and Indonesia’s Opportunity in the Trump Geopolitical Era
The new tariff policy announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025—known as the Reciprocal Tariffs—marks a new chapter in the architecture of global trade. In a unilateral move, Trump set a minimum tariff of 10% on all imported products, with additional tariffs of up to 32% targeting specific countries, including Indonesia.
This policy reflects a renewed emphasis on the principle of economic nationalism, with the primary goal of strengthening the domestic industrial base and correcting America’s trade deficit. However, in an interconnected global landscape, such protectionism carries serious geopolitical risks: undermining multilateral trade systems, triggering trade wars, and shaking the stability of international supply chains.
It is within this context that the phenomenon of postmodern war arises—an inter-state conflict no longer confined to military battlefields but expanding into arenas of economic policy and tariffs. For Indonesia, the impact of high U.S. import tariffs is real and immediate, especially in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, footwear, and fisheries, which have long relied on the American market.
Trump’s policy is not merely a trade issue, but a strategic challenge that tests Indonesia’s national economic resilience and the sharpness of its economic diplomacy. The Indonesian government has responded promptly, dispatching a high-level delegation to Washington, D.C., signaling that this pressure is not being taken lightly.
Under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto, cross-ministerial coordination has been activated to anticipate escalating trade conflicts and to find room for maneuver. Economic diplomacy has become crucial to maintaining market access while preparing for trade partner diversification scenarios to reduce dependency on a single market.
The impact of this policy goes beyond trade alone. From a macroeconomic perspective, Trump’s tariff policy could put pressure on the rupiah exchange rate. Negative sentiment, fueled by global uncertainty and worsened by dependence on commodity exports and high import needs, creates a double strain on national fiscal and monetary stability. In this situation, policy coordination between Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, and the real sector becomes absolutely necessary.
Thus, Indonesia’s economic resilience is being tested—not only in its ability to maintain currency stability and control inflation but also in its capacity to provide long-term certainty to economic actors. Failure to respond appropriately could make Indonesia more vulnerable amid a shifting tide of globalization. Interestingly, the pressure from America’s protectionist policy has driven the Prabowo administration to formulate a more comprehensive and progressive strategy.
Three major policy directions have been outlined: expanding trade partnerships, advancing natural resource downstreaming, and strengthening domestic consumption. These three measures are not mere reactions to external pressure but represent a long-term projection of national economic strength. President Prabowo has not simply responded to the tariff policy with diplomatic complaints but has seized it as a momentum to begin structural transformation.
It is within this framework that Indonesia’s new approach to global economic geopolitics becomes evident—a shift from a reactive posture to one of strategic initiative. The world is entering a post-globalization phase, where economic solidarity is no longer the dominant norm, and countries must rely on domestic strength and alternative alliances to survive.
One of Indonesia’s most strategic moves is its new orientation to expand trade partnerships through platforms like BRICS, RCEP, and strengthened bilateral cooperation with Global South countries. This strategy, known in international trade theory as trade reorientation, involves shifting dependence from traditional markets to non-traditional ones to reduce external risks.
Equally important, boosting domestic consumption has become a central focus for maintaining demand stability amidst weakening export markets. Programs such as Free Nutritious Meals and the establishment of Koperasi Desa Merah Putih (Red-and-White Village Cooperatives) show that the Prabowo government is not solely focused on macroeconomic policy but is also addressing crucial social aspects. With household consumption contributing over 50% to GDP, this policy holds strategic value in keeping the engine of national growth running.
Within the framework of inclusive development, these efforts reconnect macroeconomic policy with grassroots welfare. In other words, this strategy is not only about surviving Trump’s tariff pressure but also about strengthening the foundations of the domestic economy so they are not easily shaken amidst global turmoil.
Thus, Trump’s tariff policy is not the end of the story, but a turning point for Indonesia in reading the new direction of global economic geopolitics.
The world is witnessing the emergence of postmodern war, where dominance is no longer determined by tanks and missiles but by tariffs, currencies, and control over strategic resources. In this condition, Indonesia cannot merely hope for diplomatic compromise but must build internal resilience—through market diversification, industrial downstreaming, and revitalizing domestic consumption and distribution.
The Prabowo Subianto administration appears fully aware that today’s economic challenges cannot be separated from global geopolitical battles. In an increasingly multipolar world filled with rivalries, only nations with structural resilience can remain relevant and sovereign. And Indonesia—if it consistently carries out this strategic transformation—has a significant opportunity to rise as a new economic power in Asia and the world.
Prof. Dr. Drs. Ermaya Suradinata, SH, MH, MS, was the Governor of Lemhannas RI (2001–2005) and currently serves as the Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Center for Geopolitics and Strategy Studies of Indonesia (CGSI).
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